Early in the European session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,935, below the 21 SMA, and above the uptrend channel formed since August 17. A slight movement and consolidation are observed. The price of gold is trading sideways due to the Labor Day holiday in the US.
We expect that during the American session, there will be a technical correction in gold due to overbought conditions and it could reach the 200 EMA. According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that since August 29, gold has been stuck within an overbought zone which represents a greater bearish potential for the next few days. However, we could expect gold to rally only if it trades above the zone of 1,928 (200 EMA) to 1,941 (21 SMA).
Then, we could expect it to approach 5/8 Murray located at 1,953 again. If bullish force prevails, the instrument could overcome this level and reach 1,968 (6/8 Murray). Gold is still bullish. It means if it bounces above 1,935 in the next few hours or even if a technical bounce occurs around the 200 EMA at 1,928, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying.
If this scenario comes true, the metal could reach 1,941 (21 SMA) and 1,953 (5/8 Murray) and will be seen as an opportunity to buy. Conversely, if gold falls and consolidates below 1,928, we could expect it to reach 1,921 (3/8 Murray), 1,906 (2/8 Murray), and even the psychological level of 1,900.
The bullish outlook for XAU/USD could be cancelled if it falls below 1,930-1,921. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above 1,928 with targets at 1,937 and 1,953. The uptrend channel is serving as support and we expect gold to resume its bullish cycle from this level.
