Getting Cornered
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S&P 500 rally fizzled out overnight as stagflation worries are gaining firmer ground. The focus shifted to more Chinese property developers, and German factory orders drop was larger than expected – and at the same time, both inflation and inflation expectations keep rising.
VIX indeed hasn‘t declined below 21, and today‘s session has bearish understones again. The cynics could ask how long before the Fed rides to Treasuries rescue, breaking the dollar upswing (not that signs of its weakening wouldn‘t be there), which would help stocks crawl back somewhat? Tech already defied rising yields yesterday, but can its upswing stick?
Not too likely, for there is a shift happening, and that merits attention of commodities, PMs and crypto investors. The paper asset bears have the advantage while inflation is getting increasingly a recognized issue, underpinning real assets and cryptocurrencies.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
S&P 500 volume doesn‘t confirm the upswing‘s strength.
Credit Markets
HYG holding up better could be interpreted as mildly risk-on, but given the bond market sentiment, it remains suspect.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold and silver are feeling the heat of rising rates / underpinned dollar, but notice that the bears have a harder and harder time to drive down these paper prices.
Crude Oil
Crude oil ascent is approaching $80 resistance, and will likely back and fill before taking up on this level. Given the celebrations in oil stocks, this time is approaching.
Copper
Copper keeps struggling in spite of broader commodities strength – the red metal is bidding its time.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin and Ethereum keep consolidating gained ground, and the bears are likely to make a very temporary appearance.
Summary
Stock market bears continue having the upper hand, and credit markets are thinking twice about every upswing. As the stagflationary atmosphere intensifies, look for the commodities to do much better than stocks or bonds, and for precious metals to join once the Fed wobbles again, or sees its bluff called.
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