Bearish gap that S&P 500 buyers couldn‘t close, and worrying market breadth – such are the characteristics of going into the first and second key data release today. Just like the TSLA earnings highlight called, these paint a deterioration of consumer and business landscape while the Fed insists on being restrictive (inflation hasn‘t veritably retreated where it matters, and crude oil had appreciated over the past weeks, affecting headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations alike). All the recession ingredients are simply in place, for quite some time – hello, Q3 2023.
4,136 had been the optimistic but true „point of control“, conquering which allows the bears to take initiative. What they couldn‘t achieve yesterday, they‘re making fine progress at today. 4,111 to 4,115 represents next major support the sellers have to, and will break through – on a good enough catalyst. I don‘t expect 4,178 to be jeopardized today or tomorrow in the least – the bears are in the driver‘s seat, and I told you to get ready twice (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
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