First Swallow

For all the narrow range day, S&P 500 bears look to be waking up – in conjuction with USD. Highlighted by Russell 2000, to be confirmed by real assets today as much as by cryptos – 4,136 battle looms.

Don‘t forget the key inflation data from the UK seriously overshooting expectations, marking the next Fed tightening and keeping tight path. Not even MS expects rate cuts this year. NFLX earnings prediction also illustrates the weakening consumer as much as recent retail sales.

Liquidity keeps shrinking, lending standards are getting tight, MS set up increasing loan loss provisions as well – time to start slowly dusting off the bear return gear (return within the context of a larger trading range – couple of key resistances turned supports to break through first). The earliest tweet of today, is getting confirmed as we speak.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

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The struggle at overcoming 4,188 is more than welcome – are the buyers losing slowly steam? 4,209 didn‘t even come into jeopardy, and the most optimistic case for the sellers calls for putting serious pressure on (and breaking) 4,136.

TSLA earnings could be the catalyst here – where I see the greatest risk, is on the revenue / forward guidance rather than gross profitability side. Look for rising input costs with labor to bite increasingly more – watch out! Overall, should still confirm the slowing down real economy (what else do the price cuts in the US show anyway?).

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