Expectations For The Level Of The US Dollar to Indonesian rupiah (USD/IDR) Pair In The Q4

In September, the Indonesian rupiah weakened against the US dollar rates from 14,840 to 15,224. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the USD/IDR pair to reach 15,500 before easing back lower next year.

IDR may see some support from a hawkish BI and current account trends

“We now expect BI to hike by another 75 bps in Q4-2022 and another 75 bps in 2023.”

“IDR may be supported by resilient current account dynamics. We forecast a current account surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2022 and 0.5% deficit in 2023.”

“We forecast USD/IDR at 15,500 in Q4 and before stabilising in 2023.”

“We forecast USD/IDR at 15,300 in Q1-2023, 15,100 in Q2-2023 and 14,900 in Q3-2023.”