Miraculum is due to publish its 1Q24E results on 15 May 2024. Opinion: We expect Miraculum to report neutral results in 1Q24E, as we expect revenues to be 13% y/y lower due to high base, assume expansion of gross margin by nearly 3pp y/y and pressure on operating costs. As a result, we forecast EBITDA of PLN 575k (vs. PLN 829k reported in 1Q
Revenues. Miraculum has already reported its preliminary monthly data with revenues of PLN 4.3m in January (+10% y/y), PLN 4.2m in February (-29% y/y) and PLN 4.2m in March (-11% y/y). We expect revenues of PLN 12.7m in 1Q24E (-13% y/y); however, we point at high base of 1Q23 related to contracts in Saudi Arabia (PLN 1.4m revenue in segment ‘Other’).
Gross profit. We expect the company to improve y/y its gross margin in ‘Shaving cosmetics’ and ‘Make-up cosmetics’ and maintain in ‘Perfumes’ at comparable y/y level. As a result, we forecast gross profit of PLN 4.2m in 1Q24E (-5% y/y), implying gross margin of 33.3% (+2.8pp y/y).
EBITDA. We assume SG&A costs at comparable y/y level of PLN 3.9m. As we do not assume any other operating profit/costs, we forecast EBITDA of PLN 575k (-31% y/y) and EBIT of PLN 279k (-50% y/y).
Net result. We estimate net loss of PLN 66k, in comparison to PLN 268k profit in 1Q2
