EUR/USD Movement Analysis: False Breakthrough and Volatility Ahead of Powell's Speech
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EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro broke through the key support level at 1.0834. By the end of the day, the euro had risen by 17 points. The nature of this movement suggests that this breakthrough was false. This morning, the price continues to rise above the 1.0865 level. The Marlin oscillator continues its upward turn. Market participants are concerned that tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will confirm the idea of a strong American economy and hint at another rate hike(possibly by 0.50%).
The concern arises from the fact that seemingly obvious things might be interpreted differently by the Fed itself, implying that there might be no further tightening. Generally, the Jackson Hole conference doesn't discuss specific issues, such as a rate hike in a month or two, so there will be opportunities for speculation in interpreting Powell's words. Considering the increased volatility of the EUR/USD pair, it might reach the target range of 1.0924/42 regardless of the tone set by the Fed chair. The question is about the euro's medium-term perspective.
On the four-hour chart, following the false downward movement, the price returned above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator entered the positive territory. An uptrend in the short-term, and the target range of 1.0924/42 is in sight. Consolidating above this range will open up the next target at 1.1012.
