ECB's Knot: July Rate Hike Necessary, Beyond July Uncertain; Canadian CPI Supports Rates on Hold; Global Crypto Market at $1.2 Trillion; Oil Market Tightens with Russian Shipments Drop and China's Support Measures
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- ECB’s Knot (hawk) noted that for July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty
- Canadian headline CPI was 2.8%, versus 3% expected, which should allow the BOC to keep rates on hold
- Global crypto market cap hovers around $1.2 trillion
Oil
Crude prices are steadying here on expectations that the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households. With Russian flows falling to a six-month low, expectations are growing that OPEC+ will keep this market tight throughout the summer. China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) is pressuring financial companies to improve support on household spending. Further speculation of a Q3 RRR cut from China should also keep the oil market supported as that should imply China’s economy will only get better, which should be good news for the crude demand outlook going forward.
Brent crude looks like it wants to find a home above the $80 level and that shouldn’t be too hard as long as the crude demand outlook doesn’t get blindsided.
