ECB Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points but Hints It May Be the Last in the Cycle

• ECB raises rates another 25 basis points but signals it may be the last
• New forecasts show stubborn inflation but weak growth
• Close above 55/89-day SMA band suggests breakout still valid

 

The ECB raised interest rates again today, probably for the last time in the tightening cycle although it did leave itself some flexibility on that front.

This certainly falls into the dovish hike category, with the ECB acknowledging inflation remains too high but also that growth is suffering. What’s more, it clearly indicated that it believes the current stance should be tight enough to return inflation to target, given time.

It would appear the decision wasn’t unanimous though, with only a solid majority backing the decision. Again, we shouldn’t be surprised at this stage of the cycle that, considering the uncertain outlook, not everyone is in agreement on their assessment of the situation.

The euro slipped after the decision and following comments from President Christine Lagarde, as did euro area yields. Further progress on inflation over the coming months, as the ECB anticipates, should enable pauses over the coming meetings, at which point the focus will gradually shift to the timing of the first rate cut.

 

Does the dovish hike change the outlook for the pair?

Not necessarily. While markets were leaning towards a pause today, it was always expected to be either a dovish hike or a hawkish hold.

 

EURGBP Daily

Source – OANDA on Trading View

 

The difference that would mean for the euro probably isn’t enormously different as the terminal rate would highly likely have been the same. But does the chart confirm this or not?

It’s hard to say whether it confirms it but what I would say is the decline we’ve seen in the pair doesn’t necessarily change it in a bearish way. The pair had already broken 55/89-day simple moving average band and closed above it so, in my opinion, this corrective move does invalidate that.

The fib levels for the September lows to highs may offer clues on whether the decline we’ve seen today and yesterday is corrective or just bearish.