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Table of contents

  1. Credit Markets

    S&P 500 had trouble extending FOMC gains, and just when it looked that the 4,720 held as support, stocks were again rejected at 4,735, losing dozens of pts quickly – only to come back overnight. Well, the chief catalyst was ECB not meeting the Fed degree of dovishness in the least. Rotations continued just like I predicted yesterday in the morning – tech weakness was predictably there, and it was cyclicals and interest rate sensitive plays with Russell 2000 that drove the subsequent rebound.

    For swing traders as well, this is a fair summary, but stocks may have to consolidate a bit longer than just a single day to get through 4,735 decisively. Disappointing Empire State manufacturing at -15 led to an initial bullish gap in ES that was however sold into, so better take off the intraday gains off the table (ES -5 pts, but more than made up with the NDX long bringing in 151 pts).

    ecb and weak manufacturing ambush grafika numer 1ecb and weak manufacturing ambush grafika numer 1

    As always, more detailed commentary and levels follow in the chart section.

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    Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them, featuring S&P 500, credit markets, precious metals and oil.

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    Credit Markets

    ecb and weak manufacturing ambush grafika numer 2ecb and weak manufacturing ambush grafika numer 2

    Bonds still have the risk-on posture, but I wouldn‘t rely on yields further declining to be a stock market driver higher like there is no tomorrow. Such an outcome needs half decent incoming data, which isn‘t what we got today.

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    Monica Kingsley

    Monica Kingsley

    Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial markets analyst. Checking dozens of charts daily, she integrates their messages with economics and in-depth experience. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as studies in market histories. Having been at the financial markets when the Great Recession arrived, she experienced many bull and bear markets - be it in stocks, bonds, gold and silver. Check her out at https://www.monicakingsley.co


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