ECB and Weak Manufacturing Ambush

S&P 500 had trouble extending FOMC gains, and just when it looked that the 4,720 held as support, stocks were again rejected at 4,735, losing dozens of pts quickly – only to come back overnight. Well, the chief catalyst was ECB not meeting the Fed degree of dovishness in the least. Rotations continued just like I predicted yesterday in the morning – tech weakness was predictably there, and it was cyclicals and interest rate sensitive plays with Russell 2000 that drove the subsequent rebound.
For swing traders as well, this is a fair summary, but stocks may have to consolidate a bit longer than just a single day to get through 4,735 decisively. Disappointing Empire State manufacturing at -15 led to an initial bullish gap in ES that was however sold into, so better take off the intraday gains off the table (ES -5 pts, but more than made up with the NDX long bringing in 151 pts).
As always, more detailed commentary and levels follow in the chart section.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them, featuring S&P 500, credit markets, precious metals and oil.
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Bonds still have the risk-on posture, but I wouldn‘t rely on yields further declining to be a stock market driver higher like there is no tomorrow. Such an outcome needs half decent incoming data, which isn‘t what we got today.
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