Downgraded Growth Projections: Germany and UK Face Economic Challenges Amid Budget Chaos
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Speaking of morose growth projections
Forecasts for German growth in 2024 have been significantly lowered following the recent budget chaos after the German Constitutional Court declared government's spending plans unconstitutional. Germany – Europe's growth engine – is now seen growing just 0.4% next year. The UK, on the other hand, cut its own growth forecast significantly in yesterday's Autumn Statement. Jeremy Hunt said that the economy would grow only by around 0.7% - still better than Germany, but that projection is down from the 1.7% announced earlier. The good news for British people and businesses is that Hunt announced tax cuts for both individual and companies and lowered the national insurance payroll levy.
The Brits will now make a permanent 100% - yes 100% tax relief – on companies' capital spending. But don't be fooled by these beautiful numbers. In reality, the British tax burden will still mount to 38% of its GDP by the end of this decade and will reach its highest since post-WW2 and that 100% tax relief – the so-called 'full expensing' - is good for businesses that invest in big machinery but in a service-focused economy like the UK's, the benefits will likely remain limited.
This is certainly why the market reaction was muted yesterday. The 10-year gilt yield was slightly up, the FTSE 100 closed the session slightly in the negative, while Cable fell below the 1.25 mark, on the back of a broad-based rebound in the US dollar that hit most major peers.
