S&P 500 indeed entered yesterday in a corrective mode, which turned out to be a shallow downswing. USD and yields moved up – a bit too much to my liking, in a move that I saw as fake, especially when the closing prices are considered. And these are being duly reversed today, in what is increasingly looking as a solid risk-on day.
Today, we shouldn‘t really move below 3,900, and my first target of 3,935 should turn out a piece of cake for the bulls today – such was the technical outlook before JOTLS openings and ISM manufacturing PMIs – these didn‘t disappoint, and thus are fueling the hawkish Fed bets, with bonds obliging and duly giving up much of intraday gains. I‘m looking for this gyration to prove temporary, and for stocks to work first on stabilizing and then on recovering lost ground. The fresh objective is to return back into 3,900s.
Note though the strong silver upswing which I had been vocal about for quite a while already – the white metal is joined by copper, which I looked forward for seeing as a sign of short-term confirmation. The hit after the incoming data would prove temporary – even if cryptos aren‘t participating Tuesday, which is a little red flag which I think we can afford to ignore – I‘m not looking for a risk-off reversal today. Just a setback that has to be worked out, and will be. Asset prices broadly speaking would return to benefiting from the retreat in yields that‘s serves to take the wind of USD sails.
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