DCF valuation We have developed a 6-year DCF valuation model based on our detailed financial model for the Company’s operating activity until 2028/29. After that, we assume a steady growth phase and apply the Gordon model to calculate the terminal value.
The resulting cash flows constitute the input to our valuation, based on which we calculate the present value of those cash flows. The key assumptions incorporated in our DCF valuation model are as follows:
■ Risk-free rate of 5.6% from 2023/24e to 2028/29e and 4.0% in the terminal year.
■ Equity risk premium of 6.0% from 2023/24e to 2028/29e and 5.0% in the terminal year.
■ Beta coefficient of 1.0.
■ No additional ESG discount/premium to the cost of equity, based on ESG rating.
■ Credit margin of 2.1% based on historical data.
■ Corporate income tax rate of 19%.
■ Dynamic weight of equity and debt, in the calculation of weighted cost of capital (WACC) until 2028/29e.
■ Target EBITDA margin of 13.1% and EBIT margin of 9.1% in the residual period, respectively.
■ Terminal CAPEX at the level with a consideration of ROIC and an assumed growth rate in the residual period.
■ 2.5% growth of free cash flow in the residual period.
■ In other adjustments, we take into account a favorable decision of the Director of the Tax Administration Chamber in Gdańsk, which translates into a refund of overpaid income tax for the period 2012/13 in the amount of PLN 5.4 million.DCF valuation We have developed a 6-year DCF valuation model based on our detailed financial model for the Company’s operating activity until 2028/29. After that, we assume a steady growth phase and apply the Gordon model to calculate the terminal value. The resulting cash flows constitute the input to our valuation, based on which we calculate the present value of those cash flows. The key assumptions incorporated in our DCF valuation model are as follows:
■ Risk-free rate of 5.6% from 2023/24e to 2028/29e and 4.0% in the terminal year.
■ Equity risk premium of 6.0% from 2023/24e to 2028/29e and 5.0% in the terminal year.
■ Beta coefficient of 1.0.
■ No additional ESG discount/premium to the cost of equity, based on ESG rating.
■ Credit margin of 2.1% based on historical data.
■ Corporate income tax rate of 19%.
■ Dynamic weight of equity and debt, in the calculation of weighted cost of capital (WACC) until 2028/29e.
■ Target EBITDA margin of 13.1% and EBIT margin of 9.1% in the residual period, respectively.
■ Terminal CAPEX at the level with a consideration of ROIC and an assumed growth rate in the residual period.
■ 2.5% growth of free cash flow in the residual period.
■ In other adjustments, we take into account a favorable decision of the Director of the Tax Administration Chamber in Gdańsk, which translates into a refund of overpaid income tax for the period 2012/13 in the amount of PLN 5.4 million.
