Strong support again at 4542/38. Longs need stops below 4533.
A break lower risks a slide to 4505/00 & even 4480/75 is possible.
Nasdaq December futures edged higher to 16173 last week as we look for 16300 next target. Further gains can target 16390/410.
We have held a very tight range from around 15940/920 up to 16090/16120 for a week.
The best buying opportunity should be at 15850/830 & longs need stops below 15770. We should also have strong support at 15700/660.
Emini Dow Jones December continues higher through 35080/35100 to my next targets of 35170/190 & 35230 & now we are edging above 35400/450, so we look for 35570/590. Further gains this week can target 35650/670.
Support again at 35390/360. Longs need stops below 35250.
Global Stock Index and Dollar Movement:- Global stock indexes advanced on Tuesday.
- The U.S. dollar fell to a 3-1/2 month low, marking its biggest monthly drop in a year.
- Federal Reserve official signals that the central bank may consider rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller's Comments:
- Waller suggested the possibility of lowering the Fed policy rate in the coming months if inflation continues to decrease.
- He expressed increasing confidence that the current interest rate setting would be sufficient to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target.
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman's Remarks:
- Bowman mentioned that the central bank might need to raise borrowing costs further to bring inflation back down to its target.
- Market Response and Rate Cut Expectations:
- Traders increased bets for the first rate cut, with March being a possibility.
- Probability for a 25 basis-point cut rose to nearly 33% from 21.5% on Monday, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.
- Majority expected a cut, at least one notch, in May.
- Wall Street Indexes Performance:
- Wall Street indexes closed higher.
- Dow Jones rose 0.24%, S&P 500 gained 0.10%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.29%.
- U.S. Consumer Confidence Survey:
- A survey showed U.S. consumer confidence rose in November after three months of declines.
- However, households still anticipated a recession over the next year.
- Upcoming Economic Data:
- The spotlight will be on the U.S. October personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), including core PCE (Fed's preferred inflation measure).
- Euro zone consumer inflation figures are expected to provide clarity on price and monetary policy directions.
- U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index:
- After the Fed commentary, U.S. Treasury yields dipped, with benchmark 10-year notes down 6 basis points.
- Dollar index fell 0.368%, with the euro up 0.32% to $1.0988.
- Currency Movements:
- Japanese yen strengthened 0.82% against the greenback.
- Sterling was last trading at $1.2694, up 0.55% on the day.
- Gold Prices:
- Spot gold prices were up 1.4% at $2,040.79 an ounce, hitting their highest level since May.
- Oil Prices:
- Oil prices settled higher on the possibility of OPEC+ extending or deepening supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output, and the weaker U.S. dollar.
- U.S. crude settled up 2.07% at $76.41 per barrel, and Brent settled at $81.68, up 2.13% on the day.
- Australian and New Zealand Dollars:
- Australian dollar held near a four-month peak.
- New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495.
- Australian inflation data and a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are awaited.
