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COT Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to best level in 37-weeks

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By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 1

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Australian currency futures contracts. Australian dollar speculators reduced their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks. Over this seven-week time-frame, Aussie bets have improved by a total of +49,181 contracts, going from -86,694 net positions on February 15th to -37,513 net positions this week. This improvement in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position (-37,513 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past thirty-seven weeks, dating back to July 20th when the net position totaled -35,690 contracts. The speculator level for the Aussie has not registered a bullish or positive net weekly position since May 18th of 2021, a span of forty-seven weeks. Despite the bearish level of speculators, the AUD has been one of the stronger currencies over the past month and has been helped along by the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to raise interest rates for the first time since 2010.

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The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (911 contracts), Australian dollar (12,093 contracts), Mexican peso (9,157 contracts), Euro (5,996 contracts), Brazil real (2,910 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,458 contracts) and Bitcoin (27 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-1,698 contracts), Swiss franc (-814 contracts), British pound sterling (-1,688 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-702 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-263 contracts).


cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 2Speculator strength standings for each currency where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-05-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index49,0496531,85281-35,194163,34253
EUR663,5896727,37043-49,6176222,24711
GBP238,26663-41,7584457,77964-16,02122
JPY242,21783-103,8292125,22498-21,39510
CHF40,00514-12,3934820,74354-8,35039
CAD157,562356,92354-30,4143823,49177
AUD148,89844-37,5135022,3323615,18189
NZD35,78816-1,56969171311,39868
MXN172,7123691028-5,778704,86864
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL65,8706145,52695-47,96142,43593
Bitcoin11,37461-24489-397064128

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 3The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,941 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:83.72.910.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.774.63.9
– Net Position:31,852-35,1943,342
– Gross Longs:41,0381,4175,243
– Gross Shorts:9,18636,6111,901
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.0 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.716.153.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.310.3-21.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 4The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.853.811.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.761.38.4
– Net Position:27,370-49,61722,247
– Gross Longs:210,914357,14077,946
– Gross Shorts:183,544406,75755,699
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.461.711.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.813.7-27.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 5The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -41,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,070 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.173.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.649.415.1
– Net Position:-41,75857,779-16,021
– Gross Longs:35,873175,42919,923
– Gross Shorts:77,631117,65035,944
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.963.922.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.928.2-24.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 6The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -103,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.084.77.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.933.016.8
– Net Position:-103,829125,224-21,395
– Gross Longs:14,583205,20919,190
– Gross Shorts:118,41279,98540,585
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.498.410.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.721.2-4.3

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 7The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,579 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.673.521.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.621.642.6
– Net Position:-12,39320,743-8,350
– Gross Longs:1,86029,3928,694
– Gross Shorts:14,2538,64917,044
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.354.238.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.51.8-0.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 8The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.749.426.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.368.711.1
– Net Position:6,923-30,41423,491
– Gross Longs:37,32577,90640,906
– Gross Shorts:30,402108,32017,415
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.437.676.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-11.737.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 9The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,606 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.453.921.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.638.911.5
– Net Position:-37,51322,33215,181
– Gross Longs:34,87180,20732,313
– Gross Shorts:72,38457,87517,132
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.135.589.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.2-55.166.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 10The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.144.312.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.543.88.1
– Net Position:-1,5691711,398
– Gross Longs:15,42815,8634,311
– Gross Shorts:16,99715,6922,913
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.630.767.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-21.243.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 11The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,247 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.649.64.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.153.01.6
– Net Position:910-5,7784,868
– Gross Longs:78,72885,6907,698
– Gross Shorts:77,81891,4682,830
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.770.463.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.86.42.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 12The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.716.46.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.689.22.9
– Net Position:45,526-47,9612,435
– Gross Longs:50,51810,7954,319
– Gross Shorts:4,99258,7561,884
– Long to Short Ratio:10.1 to 10.2 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.14.593.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-20.4-2.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 13The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.660.62.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:0.594.74.7
– Net Position:7,543-7,150-393
– Gross Longs:7,65812,679593
– Gross Shorts:11519,829986
– Long to Short Ratio:66.6 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.269.123.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.616.7-18.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

cot currency speculators boost australian dollar bets to best level in 37 weeks grafika numer 14The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.53.811.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.67.36.0
– Net Position:-244-397641
– Gross Longs:8,8114371,322
– Gross Shorts:9,055834681
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.19.627.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.8-11.32.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


Invest Macro

Invest Macro

InvestMacro is an independent investing media website. Started in 2007 as a simple trading blog (as CountingPips.com) focused on global major currencies, InvestMacro has since steadily expanded and evolved. Our mission is to provide independent coverage of the relevant financial markets for global macro investors. All information and opinions are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.


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