Consumer Inflation Slowly Rising

S&P 500 quickly shrug off the CPI report that came largely in line mom – but yoy rose to 3.4%. The key drivers were shelter and oil related, just as I said Tuesday these would („beware of shelter and oil price effects“). The opening dip was 100% retraced, yet then worries about Fed not being able to cut rates soon, sank stocks shortly following the US open – only for these rate cutting worries (whether Jan or Mar bets) to be retraced as well.

Crucially, the 30y Treasury auction went really well, at 4.23% vs. 4.34% yield expected – strong demand is there, and in the bond market cool heads prevailed with yields retreating, which understandably led to relatively solid daily showing in XLRE, ITB and KRE (on some of these I commented intraday in our channel).

Here is my European morning summary, with Ellin delivering finely yesterday:

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As said yesterday clearly, this is still the time of soft landing consensus trades, with tech coming back strongly and stocks overall showing good rotations and resilience to bond yields.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

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Higher intraday low, above Tue lows, was reached, and 4,765 didn‘t come into jeopardy. Still, the decline was steep, but key sectors mentioned including semiconductors came back, which sets the stage for a shallower setback on PPI at worst. Any divergence between this figure and CPI would be telling – S&P 500 upswing continuation is a matter of shortening time as yields have clearly peaked in the 4.10% area on the 10y, and are going slowly south even if not in a one-way fashion.

Crude Oil

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Again, crude oil continues basing with a bullish bias, and has a fine geopolitical tailwind as well, which prevents sellers from making it too far. $75 is definitely way closer than $70, and patient traders remain on the long side even if $72.30 support was breached yesterday (it didn‘t offer follow through and at least a dollar lower entry point, no).

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