Changing Bias
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S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are receding, and recession prospects come to the fore, which was the subject of Tuesday‘s extensive analysis.
The turn in sentiment was fast, however our long S&P 500 and copper gains were protected by tightened stop-losses, taking the model portfolio significantly higher - .above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (check my homepage for descriptions - no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results). That‘s the proper long-term view with odds heavily in your favor through diligent analytics!
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
S&P 500 has the nearest support at 3,895, and on the upside 3,915 can give the buyers some chance to think about retracement. The character of the market is slowly changing as 200-d moving average was rejected. Again, and the same goes if you‘re in favor of looking for a declining line connecting recent tops.
Credit Markets
Bonds aren‘t supportive of any steep rally – it‘s flight to safety of Treasuries as economic prospects deteriorate. No animal spirits at the moment really.
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