Bridge Too Far
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S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as risk-off as can be on a little surprising headline – the key difference is though that the Fed doesn‘t have the back of buy the dippers this time.
The accelerated taper noises coupled with demand destruction thanks to Omicron, is delivering an inflation repreive. Make no mistake though, should demand be choked off too hard, fresh stimulus would have to come – for now in the heat increasingly being turned on, practically all asset classes suffer to varying degrees. The market isn‘t yet at a stage of sniffing out fresh stimulus countering the destructive policy effects which are being felt currently. Economic activity around the world hasn‘t been hampered, but markets are willing to err on the pessimistic side.
For now and still – only when the riskier debt instruments such as HYG turn up to deal with the prior downswing, would be a reason to cheer for animal spirits returning. That idea sounds though hollow at this time. The bears have the upper hand unless proven otherwise – that is, by a close in the 4670s. Which is what the title says...
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
S&P 500 breaking below the 50-day moving average, and taking time consolidating below, isn‘t bullish at all. The reversal was broad based, arguably hitting value more. Yes, market breadth is dismal.
Credit Markets
Positive HYG divergence is gone – the broad underperformance of S&P 500 must be reversed first to make stock market upswings trustworthy. It remains unclear how much would HYG be able to rebound when quality debt instruments cool off.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals weakness remains, but isn‘t convincing enough to short the market, no. The coming reversal to the upside would be ferocious, but we aren‘t there yet.
Crude Oil
Crude oil plunge is slowing down, and it‘s more than black gold that‘s looking for direction here – this concerns the commodities complex as such. I‘m looking for copper to show the way, and oil to follow.
Copper
Copper is sitting at a rising support line, undecided yet whether to take the Fed and Omicron threats seriously or not. It‘s wait and see for now, but the bullish side has the medium-term upper hand.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin and Ethereum are cautious as well, but the bears are looking for an ambush – let‘s see how far they can get.
Summary
- The ugly S&P 500 close concerns both value and tech – and there was no premarket upswing to speak of. The bears have the upper hand for today as markets look to be in the phase of sell first, ask questions later. Any reversal (in stocks or commodities) has to be accompanied by a credible upswing in riskier bonds, ideally with money coming out of the dollar as well.
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