S&P 500 continued non-stop to the downside – the little dead cat bounce didn‘t last. Unless HYG returns solidly above its 200-day moving average while TLT at least mirrors that move, the odds of a credible stock market reversal conquering for starters 4,015 again, are low. The combination of economic data with tightening central banks, is to keep exerting pressure, keeping a lid on any meaningful rally attempt in stocks.
The bears are in the driver‘s seat, and as Q1 and Q2 would bring sizable declines well into 3,8xx to start with, it‘s inconsequential whether 4,045 gets retraced in the days to come, or not – and not that the market setup would favor that outcome today. 4,015 is a major support, breaking which decisively would take a while – and is more likely to come before the bulls can recapture 4,060s (another major resistance zone), Bonds thus far don‘t react to approaching recession through retreat in yields – and correctly so as the ccontraction isn‘t knocking on the door (still, about to come only in late Q2), and central bank tightening is back in high gear.
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