Bitcoin is in a steep uptrend, and as such, the trader’s business is to exploit each retracement if it offers a low-risk entry point.
BTC-USD, Monthly Chart, The road map:
Bitcoin in US Dollar, monthly chart as of April 26th, 2021.
We always advise finding the bigger picture first. The monthly chart illustrates clearly the directional market, which is the essence of edge for a trader. Anything that gives us an edge is of value, and all those edges mounting up together to a true edge is what we are after.
Where interest arose was finding besides the trend two additional points of interest: First, we identified a significant volume support supply zone near US$47,680. Secondly, there seems to be a pattern if you look at the vertical lines we drew, that prices seem to bounce to the long side once the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) approached near the zero lines.
BTC-USD, Weekly Chart, Stacking the odds:
Bitcoin in US Dollar, weekly chart as of April 26th, 2021.
The next step is finding supporting factors and other odds stacked in lower time frames. One way measuring retracements is through Fibonacci retracement tools. In the above weekly chart, we did this by measuring from each leg lows (1-4) to the highs to find an overlapping high probability point of support for a possible turning point to occur.
The yellow circle provided just such a zone of odds in our favor with a carpet of support under the price.
BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Fine-tuning the entry:
Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of April 26th, 2021.
Now zooming into the daily chart time frame, we are looking to extrapolate an ideal time to enter the market with the most negligible risk. When prices were rejected twice into the zone below US$48,000, we were alerted to act (wicks within the yellow circle).
We bought the opening session on Sunday the 25th of April at US$49,000 and immediately eliminated risk through our Quad exit strategy, taking half of the position off once it reached US$50,750. Now we find ourselves positioned riskless and look fearless into the unknown future.
Bitcoin, Exploration needs persistence:
No one knows the future. Yes, prices might retrace even further to the next high probability zone near US$37,310 (see monthly chart above). A thirty-nine percent chance, as our systems indicate. But as explorers, we never have ideal circumstances. We get a window of opportunity, and often explorers need to retreat. However, with persistence, they do make their goals come true, even if it takes a few attempts. It is entry risk minimization and our quad exit strategy that allows us to try persistently without losing money to find those trades that pay off handsomely.
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By Korbinian Koller|April 26th, 2021|Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin correction, Bitcoin mining, crypto analysis, crypto chartbook, crypto mining, low risk, quad exit, technical analysis, trading education|0 Comments
About the Author: Korbinian Koller
Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
