We are keeping our Buy rating on ATM Grupa shares, while lowering our valuation to PLN 4.51/share (which is 37% above the current market price). We are not changing our stance and approach the current year's results with caution. We note the low contracting level of the tv and film production segment and the challenging earnings base in the fixed asset management segment. We are therefore preparing for the scenario that the company is likely to show negative y/y earnings growth for the next few quarters. At the same time in the 2024-2025 perspective, we are counting on a noticeable improvement in results from audiovisual activities. Our current simulation indicates that EBITDA from the two segments related to audiovisual activities in 2023 will be 13.8% lower y/y, while in 2024 and 2025 it will enter the area of positive dynamics: +7.1% and +13.7% y/y, respectively.
In our view, Q2'23 will indicate that, in terms of the last four quarters (LTM) within the two core segments (tv and film production and management), the EBITDA reading will remain stable at PLN 52.1 million. This will therefore be the eighth consecutive quarter that LTM EBITDA will remain in the range of PLN 52.0-53.6 million. At the same time, we note that, point-wise, Q2'23 itself is likely to be the weakest quarter for the tv and film production segment this year.
This is a result, as we pointed out earlier, of low contracting of new tv titles and, at the same time, the discontinuation of two long-standing and important positions for ATM Grupa. In addition, we remind you that the company in Q1'23 showed stronger-than-expected data in the tv and film production segment, and this is an indication to us that there may have been an earlier consumption of the revenues we had in the model factored in for Q2. In Q3 and Q4, we are counting on a gradual improvement in the revenue line in the tv and film production segment relative to H1'23, although we are preparing for it to remain weak on a y/y basis.
While ATM Group's earnings momentum does not encourage optimism, we emphasize the current low market valuation. We also appreciate the fact that the company consistently directs a generous stream of dividends to shareholders. Finally, we look with increasing optimism at the potential that Lumina Park is building. We assess that this entity may present a significant element in the future valuation of the assets in ATM Grupa's investment portfolio in the coming years. We also note that although the process of selling Boombit's stake currently seems vague (at current market prices), ATM Grupa is receiving a stream of dividends from Boombit
