We were somewhat disappointed by KPL's Q3 results. The halt in growth momentum within the FilmBox segment, which has been crucial in supporting the group's results, is a notable concern in Q3. However, we did observe gradual improvement in the Stopklatka segment (as a result of a low base after refarming) and the Zoom TV segment.
The Q3 2023 revenues ultimately matched our expectations. At the same time, the company's Q3 EBIT was PLN 1.5 million lower than our initial projections. We acknowledge that the company's significant positive cash flows in recent years enabled debt repayment to banks. As of the end of Q3 2023, the company had no outstanding debt financing, except for a relatively minor amount of leases, and held a cash balance of PLN 38 million.
In Q4, we expect adjusted EBITDA to grow from approximately PLN 21.6m to PLN 23m year-on-year. Thus, for the whole of 2023, we expect EBITDA adj. to reach PLN 73.4m (in 2022 it was about PLN 70.5m).
Our 2024 predictions indicate stabilization of the FilmBox segment's results, a slowdown in erosion in the Kino Polska segment, and we anticipate growth impulses in Stopklatka and Zoom TV. Thus, we anticipate a rise in EBITDA adj. to PLN 79.1m in 2024. Our model forecasts similar trends for the main segments in 2025. For 2024-2025, our assumed growth rate for EBITDA adj. is 7.8% and 6.7% y/y, respectively.
