We expect good results in Q3'23, similar to those in Q2'23 and significantly better compared to Q2'22. Toya will publish its quarterly report on November 9 this year.
• • In Q3'23, we forecast consolidated revenues at a level similar to Q2'23 and approximately 6% higher y/y. In our opinion, the slight improvement in consumer sentiment that occurred in spring continued in the third quarter.
• • The strong zloty in relation to the yuan and the dollar should translate into an improvement in gross margin on sales - we expect 33.6% vs. 33.2% in Q2'23 and 32.1% in Q3'22. We expect the high margin to be maintained also in Q4'23 - inventory turnover in the group is 6-8 months, the effect of the strong zloty should be visible until January - February 2024.
• • We assume sales and general management costs at levels similar to Q2'23. Due to the launch of a new warehouse in China, Toya no longer bears the cost of renting external warehouses.
• • We do not assume significant events in other operating activities.
• • On September 13, the company announced the early repayment of a non-revolving loan from BNP Paribas, with a maturity date of September 30, 2024. As of June 30 this year. the debt under this loan amounted to PLN 28.75 million. Net debt for the first half of the year amounted to PLN 31.5 million, and at the end of Q3'23, in our opinion, it decreased to around zero (taking into account leasing). Low debt should result in a slight improvement in the balance on financial activities.
• • In Q3'23, we forecast an increase in EBITDA by 23% y/y and net profit higher by 42% y/y.
