On April 26 Action will release 4Q23 financial results, albeit some preliminary figures may be published earlier. Given monthly sales and gross margin on sales reported by the Company we expect a high single-digit revenue yoy growth dynamic in 4Q23 coupled with the erosion of operating figures though due to continued pressure on costs of sales irrespective of a still relatively high gross margin on sales. Based on reported data for October, November and December we forecast a 9% yoy growth of 4Q23 revenues to PLN 737.7 million assuming a growth of revenues in the IT hardware segment coupled with rising yoy revenues in other segments. Action’s gross margin on sales in October/ November/ December stood at 7.6%/7.7%/7.6%, vs 7.5%/7.8%/8.0% in October/ November/ December in 2022 (preliminary data). We assume that the final gross margin on sales may exceed the preliminary figures (as it was the case in previous quarters), and expect it to reach 8.9% vs 9.0% in 4Q22.
Taking into account on the one hand (i) 9% revenue growth (positive effect of the operating leverage) and (ii) continued pressure on costs of sales (logistics, wages, etc.), and on the other (i) positive effects of restructuring and (ii) high gross margin on sales we forecast the Company’s 4Q23 EBITDA at PLN 21.2 million (down 3% yoy) with the EBITDA margin expected at 2.9% (down 0.3 pp yoy). Assuming D&A at PLN 3.3 million we expect EBIT to reach PLN 18.9 million (down 3% yoy). We expect the effective tax rate at 19% in the discussed period and thus forecast Action’s 4Q23 net profit at PLN 15.6 million (down 18% yoy).
