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Anticipated Margin Pressure in 2024E Results, Offset by Strong Pre-Sales Recovery Propelling Optimistic Outlook for 2025E

Anticipated Margin Pressure in 2024E Results, Offset by Strong Pre-Sales Recovery Propelling Optimistic Outlook for 2025E
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2024E results affected by lower margins. Given current project schedules (the developer will end only 3 projects in 2024E) and anticipated deliveries mix, we predict that 2024E results will decrease in y/y terms. Despite a growth in revenues (to PLN 454m), the gross profitability will the most likely deteriorate to 20.0% (- 10.7p.p. y/y), which in turn will negatively affect EBIT and a net profit (we assume the drop to PLN 54m and PLN 44m, respectively).

 

Strong rebound in pre-sales ought to support 2025E numbers. Given strong demand and new commencements (we predict 640-653 pre-sold units in 2023E24E, vs. 207 flats in 2022), we expect the company to meaningfully improve its results in 2025E. We forecast revenues of PLN 483m and gross margin of 22.4% (+2.4p.p. y/y). We estimate that EBIT will amount to PLN 71m and a net profit will come in at PLN 58m (vs. respective PLN 69m and PLN 57m previously).

 

anticipated margin pressure in 2024e results offset by strong pre sales recovery propelling optimistic outlook for 2025e grafika numer 1anticipated margin pressure in 2024e results offset by strong pre sales recovery propelling optimistic outlook for 2025e grafika numer 1


GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0

GPW’s Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0

The Warsaw Stock Exchange's (GPW's) Analytical Coverage Support Programme 3.0 supports investment firms in drafting analytical reports which are financed by GPW. The objective of the Programme is to improve the availability of research covering less liquid companies, facilitating investors' informed investment decisions based on a reliable independent source of issuer information. Eligible to participate in the Programme are companies listed on the GPW Main Market (other than WIG20 participants) and on NewConnect. The Programme covers up to 50 issuers.

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