Let's have a look at Ivan Cummins' predictions for 2023. In this article you will learn what Chief Equity Analyst at FXStreet expects from fiats - euro, dollar, pound and forex pairs and the leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
How will the price of the most important cryptocurrencies change in 2023 - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin? Please justify the forecast.
Slight recovery stabilisation in H2 but still underperform other risk assets such as stocks. H2 will be negative with high rates and a looming recession. Also another looming black swan is probably still to be unveiled. Overall negative outlook for 2023.
Which cryptocurrency may turn out to be the "dark horse" of 2023 and bring excessive profits to its owners?
None, I think excessive speculation in crypto is now finished.
What do you expect from euro and pound in 2023?
I expect the Euro to fall below parity. The Euro is a cyclical currency so will hold up in H1but the world faces a recession in late 2023 or 2024 and the Euro will fall as a result Sterling is beset with problems still unwinding from Brexit. IT will continue to lose its investibality status and become less important as a global currency. It will fall 10% versus the Dollar and is unlikely to finish the year positively agaisnt any other major currency save perhaps the Euro if Italian/German spreads blow out.
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USD/JPY will move back toward 150 as the BOJ panics in the face of a global recession and sticks at or clsoe to zero rates
EUR/USD will eventually fall once the penny drops that Fed rates will remain above 5% for the year. The European economy will not be as bad as feared but the US will still outperform. A strong global recession in late 2023 early 2024 will see haven demand for Dollars increase and lead Euro/USD below parity and lower. USD/JPY will move back toward 150 as the BOJ panics in the face of a global recession and sticks at or clsoe to zero rates. CNY will weaken as the Chinese economy struggles with an overheated property sector and falling global demand for its exports.
What macroeconomic and geopolitical factors will be crucial for the dollar in 2023?
US economy to avoid recession until 2024 keeping interest rates higher for longer. Stronger than expected European economy to cap Dollar gains until second half of the year.
