The year is coming to an end so from now on, we start publishing our partners' analysts predictions for 2023. The form covered various questions from stocks and precious metals to Forex and digital assets. Let's begin with Ivan Brian's (FXStreet) thoughts on stocks and precious metals.
Can you forecast how the value of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will change in 2023? Please justify the indication of a bullish/sideways/bearish trend.
S&P will initially have a strong first half of 2023 as GDP and employment remains strong. Real wages are rising and consumer spending is set to underpin the economy. A recession will be pushed out to 2024 and as markets are forward looking the second half of 2023 will be tougher for equities. Interest rates will remain high and with weak economic growth that will be a toxic environment for equities. All in all I forecast the S&P to fall 5% on the year but the Nasdaq will fall 10%.
Will we see greater positive dynamics of price changes in the sector of small, medium or large companies?
Small caps will outperform as they are less exposed to global trends and the US economy will not go into a recession in 2023.
Which sectors and industries are worth focusing on in 2023 and why?
Consumer staples due to consumer spending holding up. Financials due to rising interest rates and a steepening of the yield curve especially regional banks. Cash generative value over growth and tech likely to remain a rotation for 2023.
How will the price of an ounce of gold/silver change in 2023 - please justify.
It will struggle in the first half as interest rates and the US economy and so Dollar remain strong but recover as the year progresses and break resistance at $2,100.
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How will the demand for precious metals change in 2023 from industry, central banks, investment funds, and the jewelery industry?
Central banks will likely continue to acquire Gold below $2,000 especially on dips as geo political events have increased the need to diversify central bank holdings. Investment funds and CTA will be trend followers and will be net sellers in H1 turning net buyers in H2. Commercials will be net sellers all year.
How will the valuations of listed companies operating on the gold and silver market (mining companies) change in 2023?
They will struggle in H1 as the price of Gold is subdued by a strong Dollar and high interest rates. ECB and Fed are still hawkish and now the BOJ has turned. Gold should recover in H2 but stocks will be under pressure so miners should outperform in a falling market. Overall for 2023 I would see miners being slightly higher maybe 5%.
