What CPI Reading In Great Britain Can We Expect This Time?
Aa
Share
Throughout all the months of this year, inflation remains in the candlestick. Every month we notice a change in the consumer price index (CPI), which informs about the annual or monthly change the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
Why are prices rising so fast?
Once again our eyes will be on the UK reports.
Other countries are also experiencing a cost of living squeeze. Many of the reasons are the same: increased energy costs, shortages of goods and materials and the fallout from Covid.
According to the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, the cause of inflation in the UK is "a shock in Russia"
After all, as stated by the Governor of the Bank of England, there are many other factors, such as:
- energy bills that have risen sharply due to high oil and gas prices.
- gasoline and diesel prices, partly because the war in Ukraine has increased the price of crude oil.
- food prices as the war in Ukraine reduces grain production and costs increased drastically
Not all prices behave the same way. The cost of some other goods and services have increased only slightly or stayed the same.
What inflation looked like and what can it look like in the UK?
As we can see from the horse of last year, inflation in Great Britain continues the upward trend.
There was a sharp increase in April as it rose from 2%, from 7.0% to 9.0%. In the collections it grew slowly, only by a tenth of a percent. In July, it exceeded the 10% threshold, amounting to 10.1%. Then it unexpectedly fell to 9.9% in August. It is projected to rise from this level to 10.0% in September.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs now says inflation could peak at 10.8% in October, and slow to 2.4% by December 2023.
Lower inflation does not mean prices will go down. It just means they will stop rising at their recent faster pace.
Source: investing.com
Inflation in the last reading depending on the sector
- The annual inflation rate for transport was 12.4% in August 2022, down from 15.1% in July.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 13.1% in the 12 months to August 2022, up from 12.7% in July.
- The annual rate for the miscellaneous goods and services category was 4.6% in August 2022, up from 4.0% in July. The rate is the highest recorded since September 2005.
- The annual rate for clothing and footwear was 7.6% in the year to August 2022, up from 6.6% in July.
And this time, in the September post office, we can expect growth in these sectors.
The actions of the British central bank in the fight against inflation
The Bank is under pressure to put rates up because it has a target to keep inflation at 2%, but prices are currently rising at about five times that level. The Bank of England's traditional response, as other cental banks, to rising inflation is to raise interest rates. On 22 September, the Bank of England raised rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.25% - the highest level for 14 years. This can encourage people to save, but means some people with mortgages see their monthly payments go up.
How it affects ?
When interest rates rise, about two million people on tracker and variable rate deals see an immediate increase in their monthly payments. Their monthly payments may not change immediately, but with lenders now anticipating higher rates, any new deals will be more expensive. That means new house buyers - or anyone seeking to remortgage - will also have to pay more.
Raising interest rates also makes borrowing more expensive and - it is hoped - people have less money to spend. As a result, they will buy fewer things and prices will stop rising as fast.
Bank of England interest rates also influence the interest charged on things like credit cards, bank loans and car loans
It also has negative effects on savings because the value of cash savings is falling in real terms.
Source: investing.com, ons.gov.uk
