Important US Reports Ahead, The Services And Manufacturing Projected Under 50
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Wednesday will undoubtedly be a busy day for America. There will be weekly reports on unemployment benefits claims, as well as the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Moreover, the real estate market will attract attention.
Building permits
The change in the number of new building permits issued by the government report will be published. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
There are no forecasts for Wednesday's reading, but we can expect the result to be close to the reading of 17.11.22, which is 1.526M. Overall, the situation remains in a downward trend. In contrast, the last two readings were much higher than expected.
Source: investing.com
Core Durable Goods Orders
The change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items is expected to increase from -0.5% to 0.1%. So it is expected that October was a positive period with changes in orders of this type.
This year only twice the change was below zero (March, August), but since May there is a much lower trend, which is mainly below 0.5%. A lower reading indicates like this is showing that there is a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Initial Jobless Claims
The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week is expected to increase from 222K to 225K. For two weeks the level has been above 200K, which may mean that Americans fear layoffs or have already lost their jobs.
Crude Oil Inventories
The Movement of The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories has been a sine wave for the last few weeks. There are no predictions for the future reading, but the last reading was positive as it was below zero.
Source: investing.com
PMI Reports
In addition, PMI reports for the Services and Manufacturing sectors will be released on Wednesday. Both readings are expected to be below 50.
The Services Purchasing Managers Index has been below 50 since July, but the last two readings showed an increase. Currently, it is expected to drop from 47.8 to 47.7
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index this year was in a better position compared to the services PMI. Only once (31.10.) was it below the 50 threshold. The reading for 1.11.22 showed an increase from 49.9 to 50.4. Wednesday's readings are forecast to be at the same level as October 31.
There will also be S&P Global PMI, i.e. the weighted average of manufacturing and service sector PMIs for a given geography or economy, produced by S&P Global. The PMI has no expectations, but it has been below 50 since July and the last reading was positive, which means it has risen closer to that threshold. We can speculate that the results will oscillate around 48.0.
New Home Sales
The annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month is expected to fall below 600K. The last two readings were higher than expected and were above 600K. Forecasts for the month of October show that the number of new single-family homes that have been sold will drop from 603K to 570K. This means a deterioration of the real estate market.
FOMC minutes
There is no doubt that the situation of the US economy is closely watched by traders and investors. An economic event, macroeconomic results and political events affect not only the state of the largest economy in the world - the USA, but also others. From this podium, one of the most important reports released on Wednesday will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes
FOMC minutes provide more detailed information on the range of Committee members' views on the appropriate policy stance, on the U.S. economic outlook, and on the near-term monetary policy inclination.
Source: https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
