HFM Market Analyst: Polish interest rates could be cut in 2024 rather than the end of 2023 like the NBP stated
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Could you please comment on the National Bank of Poland interest rate decision after it's released?
Andria Pichidi, HFM Market Analyst: Poland kept borrowing costs on hold at 6.75% for the 7th straight month in line with the forecast and predicted inflation will gradually ease from the highest level in a quarter. It didn’t rule out further rate increases, saying its future decisions will depend on economic prospects. Considering the dovish monetary policy statement last month and the decline in the flash annual CPI inflation in March, the NBP didn’t have any room for monetary easing, while the small decline in inflation didn’t allow them to increase rates either.
NBP didn’t have any room for monetary easing, while the small decline in inflation didn’t allow them to increase rates either
Polish interest rates could be cut in 2024 rather than the end of 2023 like the NBP stated. The central bank governor said today he believes weakening gross domestic product growth, together with already implemented rate hikes, would help gradually curb inflation. However with the sticky core inflation still at 12.3% y/y vs. 12.0% in February on Wednesday, this scenario looks unlikely.
