Breaking! Shocking German industrial data. Orders in German industry in January 2023 increased by 1% m/m
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Orders in German industry in January 2023 fell for the eleventh consecutive month in annual terms, according to data released today by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).
- Orders in German industry in January 2023 increased by 1% m/m (forecast: -0.7% m/m)
- In year-on-year terms, they fell by -10.9% (forecast: -12.5% y/y)
- Domestic orders fell by -5.3% MoM, foreign orders increased by 5.5% MoM
- The increase in orders in the aircraft and spacecraft sector is impressive: +138.5%
It's hard to believe, but it's true: orders in German industry in January 2023 fell for the eleventh consecutive month on an annualized basis.
Data on the German economy, released this morning by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), do not inspire optimism. And this is not good news for the Polish economy, which is still very closely linked to the German economy.
Let us remind you that Germany is Poland's largest trading partner. In the first 5 months of 2022, Polish exports to Germany were worth €38 billion (+15.2% y/y), while imports were worth €30.5 billion (+26.7% y/y). And although Germany's share in total Polish exports decreased from 28.9% to 27.9%, the share of our western neighbors in our exports was still almost one-third of the total.
Orders in German industry on an annual basis
Source: MacroNext
Domestic orders down, foreign orders up
Orders in German industry in January 2023 rose by 1% month-on-month, which was a nice surprise, because analysts expected -0.7% m/m, after an increase of 3.4% a month earlier. However, in year-on-year terms, they fell by -10.9% (forecast: -12.5% y/y, after a decline in December by -9.9% y/y).
Index of orders in German industry
Source: Destatis
As statisticians point out, in January 2023 domestic and foreign orders in Germany showed opposite trends. While domestic orders fell by -5.3% MoM, foreign orders increased by 5.5%MoM. New orders from the euro zone fell by -2.9%, while orders from the rest of the world increased by 11.2%. The increase in orders from countries outside the euro area was mainly due to large orders in the aircraft and spacecraft sector.
Impressive increase in orders in the aircraft and spacecraft construction sector
As in the case of domestic and foreign orders, the main industrial groups in the industry also moved in opposite directions. While new orders in the capital goods sector increased by 8.9% in January 2023, orders in the area of intermediate goods fell by -8.9% compared to the previous month. New orders in the consumer goods sector fell by -5.5%. The increase in orders in the aircraft and spacecraft construction sector (+138.5%) is impressive, and there is also an increase in orders for the production of engines for motor vehicles (+6.8%). The decrease in new orders was particularly pronounced in the production of electrical appliances: -22.3% (after an increase of 34.3% in the previous month).
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Turnover in industry in January 2023 increased by 0.2% m/m. The revision of the data revealed a decrease of -1.5% in December 2022 compared to November 2022 (was: -1.7%). In January 2023, calendar-adjusted turnover was -0.4% lower than in January 2022.
Turnover index in German industry
Source: Destatis
